CITIC Securities (600030) 2018 Annual Report Review: Leading Leader Shows Steady Value
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue of 372.
200 million, a decrease of 14 per year.
0%; net profit attributable to mother 93.
9 trillion, a decrease of 17 a year.
9%, corresponding EPS is 0.
77 yuan / share; net assets attributable to mother 1531.
4 trillion, corresponding to 12 BVPS.
64 yuan / share; divided into dividends of 0.
35 yuan (including tax).
64 Investment Highlights The overall performance in 2018 was in line with expectations, and the leader is still solid.
1) Due to the downturn in the primary and secondary markets in 2018, the overall net 四川耍耍网 profit of the securities industry decreased by 41.
0%, the company realized net profit from scratch17.
9%, the performance is obviously consistent with the industry, and it steadily ranks among the leaders in the industry.
2) Investment income (including fair value loss gains), which was the core driver of the company’s strong performance against the trend, was gradually included in 36.
7% to 80.
50,000 yuan is expected to be mainly due to the overall downward trend of the stock market and the high base in 2017.
3) Affected by the downturn in the market and the shrinking IPO in the primary market (according to Wind data, the amount of funds raised in 2018 gradually increased by 40% to US $ 137.8 billion), the brokerage / investment bank business replaced7.
7% / 17.
4) Since the second half of 2018, the 厦门夜网 risk of equity business has escalated, and the ranking companies have raised a total of 21 credit impairments.
9 trillion, the risk is expected to be gradually released (the company’s purchase of resale financial assets has been significantly significant earlier 41% to 674 trillion).
The proportion of institutional clients increased, and the performance of public offerings was dazzling.
1) The market share of the company’s brokerage business increased to 6 in 2018.
09%, ranking second in the industry. We judge that the company focuses on the development of institutional customers (the proportion of institutional customers in agency securities trading increased from 35% in 2017 to 43% in 2018). The transaction behavior of institutional customers compared to individual customersMore stable, it helps to protect the income of the brokerage business.
2) Under the new rules of asset management, the company’s asset management business income increased by +2.
4% to 58.
US $ 300 million, which is the strength of Huaxia Fund’s investment and research, and the scale of public fund management has increased by +13.
0% to 45.06 million yuan (ranked first in the sector of partial-equity funds), resulting in an increase in fund business income by 9 per year.
0% to 41.
3) The company flexibly uses derivatives to provide risk management, asset allocation, hedging and other solutions for proprietary investments and institutional clients. With the gradual liberalization of the market, it is expected to continue to contribute to performance (the scale of derivative financial instruments in 2018 increased by 9.5 billion yuan) To 20.
700 million, affecting the current profit of 8.8 billion).
The acquisition of Guangzhou Securities and the promotion of employee stock ownership will lead Hengqiang to the top.
1) The company’s strategic considerations based on overall industry integration and expansion of South China’s layout, taking into account market expectations, and forecasting the acquisition of Guangzhou Securities, confirming the leading trend of the securities industry from the perspective of industrial capital, and leading CITIC to expand its business layout in South China (Guangzhou has 154Home Sales Department, South China accounts for 27%).
2) The company’s leader releases the employee stock ownership plan budget, with a planning scope of about 1,000-1500 people. In the future, the company’s employees will be gradually motivated to form a virtuous cycle of performance and response, showing the leadership’s confidence in the company’s long-term development.
3) The introduction of the registration board for the science and technology innovation board will open a new era of the capital market. The brokers on the right have a clear understanding of the market, pricing power, and underwriting capabilities.The strong are strong.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: The company’s negative performance in 2018 is due to the sluggish market conditions and changes in investment income. At the same time, impairment and restructuring impact profits, releasing the risk of releasing equity pledge business.
As the market rebounded, the merger company’s acquisition of Guangzhou Securities’ expansion plan and the release of its employee shareholding plan demonstrated confidence and long-term optimism about the prospects of its leading securities firms.It is estimated that net profit attributable to mothers will be 149 in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
700 million, 158.
0 ppm, currently only 1 point.
8x 2019PB, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: 1) Market activity is declining; 2) Stock market fluctuations impact return on proprietary investment.