China Software (600536): Leading domestic operating system seizes the possibility of autonomous controllability
Report Summary: The company is one of the pioneers in the domestic software industry.
It has built a complete product chain from operating systems, databases, middleware, security products to application systems; in national taxation, party and government, transportation, intellectual property, finance, energy, health care, security supervision, letter visits, emergency response,Industry and commerce, public utilities and other important areas of the national economy have accumulated tens of thousands of customer groups.
Autonomy and control have risen to the national strategy.
The highest global cybersecurity incidents are frequent, and there have been several Sino-US trade wars and several US embargoes on China in 2018. Therefore, the government will promote independence and control to a national strategic layout, and independence and control will usher in frequent policies.
The company is an autonomous and controllable national team.
The company is controlled by China Electronics.
Inside the Chinese electronic system, there are also Dameng database management system, “Data Security Guardian” Shengke network chip, and “Network Supervisor” Maipu switch of self-controllable computing system, which form a complete self-controllable solution.
The company’s core products have won the bid for the Kirin system for many years in the domestic Linux system in total.
We expect: the domestic operation of the operating system to replace the core areas of party and government began, is expected to complete the replacement within 3 years, and gradually expand to 8 + 2 that includes finance, oil, electricity, telecommunications, transportation, aerospace, hospitals, education as the representativeEight important industries.
Although the size of China’s PC has been reduced, the specific commercial PC segment industry is still growing steadily. In the future, domestic systems will be gradually adopted to create a broad market.
We estimate that the number of computers owned by party and government agencies is around 20 million units. If the operating system is calculated at 500 yuan, the overall market size of autonomous and controllable operating systems will be around 10 billion trillion.
If the deployment is completed within three years, the annual market size is between 30-40 trillion.
Profit forecast: We expect the company’s operating income from 2019 to 202北京男士spa会所0 to be 60 ppm, 77 ppm and 9.7 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 1.
9.2 billion, 2.
23 ppm and 3.
0 billion; budget revenue is 0.
39 yuan, 0.
45 yuan and 0.
61 yuan, corresponding PE is 138, 119 and 88 respectively.
Covered for the first time, giving the company a “Recommended” rating.
With reference to the 2019 estimates of similar companies in the same industry, the company is given a six-month target price of 60 yuan.
Risk warning: macroeconomic risks; autonomous and controllable advancement is less than expected risks.